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                    阿里達摩院發布2019年十大科技趨勢

                    作者: 17know 分類: 科技 發布時間: 2019-01-03
                      2018匆匆而逝,但在2019年,科技依然是世界運轉的一個大主題。
                     
                      1月2日,阿里達摩院發布了《2019十大科技趨勢》,對于處在“2018年是過去十年來最糟糕的一年,也是未來十年最好的一年”的糾結與迷茫中的人來說,無疑是一次指明方向的重要報告。
                     
                      該報告包含了智能城市、語音AI、AI專用芯片、圖神經網絡系統、計算體系結構、5G、數字身份、自動駕駛、區塊鏈、數據安全等領域。
                     
                      據悉,這是達摩院自2017年10月成立以來發布的首份科技趨勢報告。此次報告的發布,可以理解為達摩院一年多來的技術沉淀與行業觀察。
                    阿里達摩院發布2019年十大科技趨勢
                      達摩院《2019十大科技趨勢》
                     
                      趨勢1:城市實時仿真成為可能,智能城市誕生
                     
                      城市公共基礎設施的感知數據與城市實時脈動數據流將匯聚到大計算平臺上,算力與算法發展將推動視頻等非結構化信息與其他結構化信息實時融合,城市實時仿真成為可能,城市局部智能將升級為全局智能。
                     
                      未來會出現更多的力量進行城市大腦技術和應用的研發,實體城市之上將誕生全時空感知、全要素聯動、全周期迭代的智能城市,大大推動城市治理水平優化提升,預計在新的一年,中國會有越來越多城市具有大腦。
                     
                      趨勢2:語音AI在特定領域通過圖靈測試
                     
                      隨著端云一體語音交互模組的標準化、低成本化,會說話的公共設施會越來越多。
                     
                      未來每一個空間都至少會有一個可以進行語音交互的觸點。隨著智能語音技術的提升,移動設備上的實時語音生成與真人語音可能將無法區分,甚至在一些特定對話中通過圖靈測試。針對這一領域的規則甚至法律會逐步建立,引導行業走向規范化。
                     
                      趨勢3:AI專用芯片將挑戰GPU的絕對統治地位
                     
                      當下數據中心的AI訓練場景下,計算和存儲之間數據搬移已成為瓶頸,新一代的基于3D堆疊存儲技術的AI芯片架構已經成為趨勢。
                     
                      AI芯片中數據帶寬的需求會進一步推動3D堆疊存儲芯片在AI訓練芯片中的普遍應用。而類腦計算芯片也會在尋找更合適的應用中進一步推動其發展。在數據中心的訓練場景,AI專用芯片將挑戰GPU的絕對統治地位。真正能充分體現Domain Specific的AI芯片架構還是會更多地體現在諸多邊緣場景。
                     
                      趨勢4:超大規模圖神經網絡系統將賦予機器常識
                     
                      單純的深度學習已經成熟,而結合了深度學習的圖神經網絡將端到端學習與歸納推理相結合,有望解決深度學習無法處理的關系推理、可解釋性等一系列問題。
                     
                      強大的圖神經網絡將會類似于由神經元等節點所形成網絡的人的大腦,機器有望成為具備常識,具有理解、認知能力的AI。
                     
                      趨勢5:計算體系結構將被重構
                     
                      無論是數據中心或者邊緣計算場景,計算體系將被重構。
                     
                      未來的計算、存儲、網絡不僅要滿足人工智能對高通量計算力的需求,也要滿足物聯網場景對低功耗的需求。基于FPGA、GPU、ASIC等計算芯片的異構計算架構,以及新型存儲器件的出現,已經為傳統計算架構的演進拉開了序幕。從過去以CPU為核心的通用計算而走向由應用驅動(Application-driven)和技術驅動(Technology-driven)所帶來的Domain-specific體系結構的顛覆性改變,將加速人工智能甚至是量子計算黃金時代的到來。
                     
                      趨勢6:5G網絡催生全新應用場景
                     
                      第五代移動通信技術將使移動帶寬大幅度增強,提供近百倍于4G的峰值速率,促進基于4K/8K超高清視頻、AR/VR等沉浸式交互模式的逐步成熟。連接能力將增強至百億級,帶來海量的機器類通信及連接的深度融合。
                     
                      網絡向云化、軟件化演進,網絡可切片成多個相互獨立、平行的虛擬子網絡,為不同應用提供虛擬專屬網絡,加上高可靠、低時延、大容量的網絡能力,將使車路協同、工業互聯網等領域獲得全新的技術賦能。
                     
                      趨勢7:數字身份將成為第二張身份證
                     
                      生物識別技術正逐漸成熟并進入大規模應用階段。
                     
                      隨著3D傳感器的快速普及、多種生物特征的融合,每個設備都能更聰明地“看”和“聽”。生物識別和活體技術也將重塑身份識別和認證,數字身份將成為人的第二張身份證。從手機解鎖、小區門禁到餐廳吃飯、超市收銀,再到高鐵進站、機場安檢以及醫院看病,靠臉走遍天下的時代正在加速到來。
                     
                      趨勢8:自動駕駛進入冷靜發展期
                     
                      單純依靠“單車智能”的方式革新汽車,在很長一段時間內無法實現終極的無人駕駛,但并不意味著自動駕駛完全進入寒冬。車路協同技術路線,會加快無人駕駛的到來。
                     
                      在未來2-3年內,以物流、運輸等限定場景為代表的自動駕駛商業化應用會迎來新的進展,例如固定線路公交、無人配送、園區微循環等商用場景將快速落地。
                     
                      趨勢9:區塊鏈回歸理性,商業化應用加速
                     
                      在各行業數字化的進程中,物聯網技術將支撐鏈下世界和鏈上數據的可信映射,區塊鏈技術將促進可信數據在流轉路徑上的重組和優化,從而提高流轉和協同的效率。在跨境匯款,供應鏈金融,電子票據和司法存證等眾多場景中,區塊鏈將開始融入我們的日常生活。
                     
                      隨著“鏈接”價值的體現,分層架構和跨鏈互聯將成為區塊鏈規模化的技術基礎。區塊鏈領域將從過度狂熱和過度悲觀回歸理性,商業化應用有望加速落地。
                     
                      趨勢10:數據安全保護技術加速涌現
                     
                      各國政府都會趨向于推出更加嚴厲的數據安全政策法規,企業將在個人數據隱私保護上投入更多力量。
                     
                      未來幾年,黑客、黑產攻擊不會停止,但數據安全保護技術將加碼推出。跨系統的數據追蹤溯源相關的技術,比如水印技術,數據資產保護的技術以及面向強對抗的高級反爬蟲技術等將得到更加廣泛應用。

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